Hot Air: GA7 Republican Fundraising Problems

Kept aloft by significant personal donations and loans, Republican candidates of Georgia’s 7th try to hide their fundraising weakness. The 2019 third-quarter Federal Election Commission filings showed that GA7 Republicans had a hard time fundraising in the third quarter.

The first candidate tier is held by Lynne Homrich and Renee Unterman, who both fundraised over six figures. This fundraising was hidden behind significant personal loans that both candidates have made to their campaigns.

Senator Unterman is very actively campaigning, present at numerous activities throughout the district. She is widely considered the front runner and the favorite among Republican insiders. Senator Unterman’s long legislative history is both an asset and a liability to her campaign.

On the other hand, Lynne Homrich suffers from the opposite challenge. Lynne is a newcomer to politics and to GA7. Many establishment Republicans in the district don’t consider her a Republican, which could be a strength if she did not have to win a primary. That has not held back Lynne’s campaigning effort. Coupled with a very positive personality and a genuine and candid approach to the election, Lynne is making headway among less party-centric voters and even within establishment circles. When you talk to Lynne, you can’t help but think that she is a wonderful individual.

The second GOP tier is comprised of Mark Gonsalves, Lerah Lee, and Ben Bullock. Mark Gonsalves continued with a disciplined campaign that balanced fundraising with a high energy presence at virtually every event in Forsyth and Gwinnett. Mark is a complete gentleman: competent and articulate with an uncanny ability to forge deep bonds with most people he meets. Dr. Lee came from behind and posted a significant fundraising number from a variety of political action committees. She is the first candidate in the second tier who does not have personal loans to her campaign. Lerah is likely one of the most likable candidates in the race.

Like Lerah Lee’s campaign, Ben Bullock’s campaign filings are not distorted by loans or personal donations. An Air Force veteran with a strong personality and a solid Republican voting record, Ben Bullock could easily be higher up on the rankings if he were better known within the district. Clearly, Mr. Bullock’s strategy has been to fundraise as aggressively as possible at the expense of not being as well known within the district. At some point, Mr. Bullock will have to shift his strategy if he is to have a shot at the nomination. Among newcomers Lynne Homrick, Mark Gonsalves, and Rich McCormick, only Ben Bullock has a solid voting record of voting Republican.

Rich McCormick is in a category all to himself. Within the district, he is seen as a strong conservative despite his lack of a GOP voting record. Rich’s alignment with conservative causes, his military record, and his status as a medical doctor gives him a path to the nomination, but his very strong conservative leanings could hurt him in the general election as he would try to win in a moderate district that has more minorities than Caucasians: GA7 is bigger than Forsyth.

McCormick has spent most of his fundraising monies. His cash on hand reflects that most of the money his campaign holds is in the form of a large loan and personal donation. If he has spent his monies wisely, he might be getting ready to make a big splash within the district. If he has not, his position is weaker than it looks. Hopefully, he has strong independent advice regarding him putting his personal funds at risk without a very strong path to winning GA7 in November of 2020.

At the bottom of the Republican field are Tseng, Profit, Babbage who had significant fundraising challenges in Q3. Every citizen in Georgia has a right to run for the GA7 seat regardless of fundraising totals. Money does not buy votes, but money is essential to get a candidate’s message out to the people.

Without a degree of fundraising, it’ll be very difficult for Tseng, Profit, and Babbage to make any headway. The following is written respectfully. If these low-fundraising candidates cannot post significant progress in Q4, a decidedly difficult quarter, they should consider suspending their campaigns like Harrison Floyd.

Why Loans and Personal Donations Matter

The loan and personal donation category are important because candidates are less likely to spend those monies than they are likely to spend campaign donations. The rationale is simple. Dr. McCormick has donated or loaned over $400,000 to his campaign, Renee Unterman has loaned her campaign a staggering $600,000, while Lynne Homrich has loaned her campaign $250,000. $400,000 represents a nice vacation home, an Ivy League education for a child, or part of a retirement plan.

Regardless of how personally wealthy a candidate is, it is unlikely that any rational candidate would spend that kind of money unless they were sure they could win the nomination and the election. A candidate would be even less likely to spend those loans if they were guaranteed against their personal homes or other valuable personal assets.

The purpose of loaning to one’s campaign is to scare away other candidates who are not as wealthy. At the end of the day, it’s the donations from donors that really get spent.

Democrats

GA7 Democrat filings do not have as many smoke and mirror tricks as Republican’s filings. Democrats in Georgia’s 7th are proving that they can fundraise locally and nationally. Carolyn Bourdeaux continues to lead with strong fundraising.

Nabilah Islam is likely a strong second place. Nabilah continues to fundraise strongly, but she is spending much of her fundraising monies. She continues to be the darling of the campaign, usually lead other Democrats in tackling the hard issues. Nabilah consistently sets the tone for Democrats in GA7. Hopefully, Nabilah’s campaign spend is being converted efficiently into name recognition. To be effective, she’ll need to build up her coffers for a strong last-minute push to the primary finish.

The big surprise, non-surprise, in the Democrat’s camp is Zahra Karinshak who has risen to second place with respect to fundraising. Karinshak comes into the race with strong name recognition and it is clear that Karinshak has her goal squarely on the nomination, but it will be interesting to see if she can catch up to Bourdeaux and Islam’s early leads. Money helps but it does not equate to voters.

Lopez Romero and Eaves bring up the second tier of Democrats vying for the GA7 nomination. Like the Republicans, Democrats have a bottom rung of candidates like Kim, Malik, and Cole who had a challenging 3rd Quarter.

It’s early and money is not everything

Overall, fundraising is only one component of a campaign. Early fundraising and personal donations are like a match on a grille: they can help get things going but they won’t cook the meal. At the end of the day, it’s about igniting a campaign and winning the voters.

It’s still a long road to May 2020.