GA7 Dark Omens
A week ago, the FEC released fundraising numbers for GA7 candidates, and there is a wealth of information buried in those figures. The most important figure, of course, is a campaign’s ending balance, because it outlines how much money a campaign has available for advertising and their ground game: signs, commercials, mailers, advertisements, etc. A candidate without money will have a very difficult time getting their message out to the general voter, and candidates with no path to the nomination should make the responsible choice and begin to drop out of the race soon.
Candidates routinely give or loan their campaigns money from personal funds or from other sources in an effort to self-fund or to make their campaigns appear healthier than they are, so another important figure is how much money a candidate has loaned or donated to their campaign and how much debt the campaign carries. In the end, candidates are more likely to spend donor money than their own.
Looking at the GA7 race, it’s clear that Lynne Homrich, Renee Unterman, Mark Gonsalves, and Richard McCormick made sizable personal contributions to their campaigns. Rich McCormick raised less than $15,000 last quarter, yet shows over $300,000 in his campaign. Renee Unterman’s campaign finances show a significant debt of $600,000, but that figure is from her Georgia Senate state campaign. Renee’s fundraising for Q2 was a much more modest $72,000.
Another figure that politicos like to look at is the average size of donations. Many small donations are preferable to a few large donations because small donations denote that a candidate is resonating with the electorate. In recent years, small but recurring donations have also started to distort a candidate’s true grassroots support, with many wealthier people opting to make multiple $50 donations that add up to $2,500. Because of the recurring donation tactic, the average-donation-size metric should be looked at with caution. Looking at the donations for the Republican field, it’s clear that much of the fundraising they’ve done is from wealthy donors who have donated thousands of dollars to their campaigns. A few chosen husband and wife teams donating $5,000 to a primary, runoff, and the general election can quickly inflate any campaign’s coffers.
Republicans
The major takeaway from the Georgia 7th Q2 is that Republicans are having a hard time fundraising. Some of the candidates did not even raise enough money to cover the qualification fee next March.
The biggest surprise to most politicos was the underperformance of Rich McCormick’s donations and the over performance from a relatively unknown Ben Bullock, who finished Q2 with nearly $150,000 in his campaign coffers, although half of that sum is encumbered as debt. It’s clear that Mr. Bullock was focused on the right things during Q2.
Much worse for Republicans is the fact that Republican minority candidates are severely underperforming in the district. This is a very dark omen for Republicans.
Top Tier
Clearly, Unterman and Homrich have now established themselves as the leaders of the Republican pack. For both Unterman and Homrich, the test this quarter will be whether they can continue to fundraise successfully while they also work to connect with the voters in the 7th. They’re going to have to spend some of their war chests.
While Unterman is a State Senator in the northern part of Gwinnett, she has to demonstrate that she can move outside her comfort zone and connect with minorities and suburbanites in the rest of the district. Renee also has to prove that she can fundraise outside her traditional donor base.
Lynne Homrich is going to have to find some way to forge an affinity with Republicans and find a way to connect with the voters of the district. Republicans of the 7th do not easily give their loyalties up. It’s also unclear how well Lynne will be able to connect with minorities and the suburbanites of GA7.
Second Tier
The second tier of Republicans is now solidly comprised of Mark Gonsalves, Rich McCormick, and Ben Bullock. Ben Bullock surprised many with his unexpected performance. Rich McCormick’s fundraising underperformance pushes him into this second tier. If any of these candidates have any hope of being real contenders, they are going to have to fundraise heavily in Q3 and/or get support commitments from large outside PACs.
There will likely be much shuffling among the second tier and all eyes will be on them to see if they can fundraise, build their grassroots, and somehow break out into the top tier. Q3 will play a defining role for this second tier of candidates.
Bottom Tier & Late Entrants
Nobody likes to be seen or placed in the bottom tier, but the remaining Republican candidates did not fundraise enough to put themselves on anybody’s radar. Distressingly, GOP minority candidates performed poorly which can indicate that Republicans are not making inroads into GA7 minority populations.
Unless, some of these candidates have a giant but silent grassroots following or a superb comeback strategy for Q3, they are all likely out of the race altogether.
Finally, there is always a possibility of a fall entrant into the GA7 race from the republican side. Certainly, a big name could shake up the race, but, as of publishing, no other Republican had announced and the window is closing fast for any new candidate to announce because any new entrant would want to have enough time to fundraise for the very important Q3.
Democrats
By contrast, Democrats are performing very well in GA7. Clearly, the leader of the pack is Carolyn Bourdeaux who has nearly $600,000 in the bank with no debt. Her campaign is firing on all cylinders, fundraising at the local and national level. Not much needs to be said about Carolyn. She is running a professional campaign that takes advantage of opportunities without getting caught up in the pitfalls of the national discourse.
The bigger story for the democrats is how well their second tier of candidates are performing. First and foremost, Nabilah Islam is the shining star of the GA7 democratic candidates. She finished Q2 with over $100,000 in cash and no debt. Brenda Lopez Romero, a state representative, and John Eaves, a former Fulton County Commission chair, proved that they could also tap into their base and fundraise.
The fact that democratic minorities are fundraising so well while Republican minority candidates underperform should deeply concern Republicans. Bottom line, Democrats have grassroots groundswell across their demographics and Republicans do not.
Could a minority Democratic candidate steal the GA7 nomination from Carolyn Bourdeaux? We think the answer is yes and right now that candidate would be an energetic Nabilah Islam. Many Republicans would prefer to face Nabilah over Carolyn, but such a calculus from Republicans might be flawed; never underestimate a candidate who energizes the grassroots. If democrats shake it up and nominate Nabilah, the district would be moving into unknown territory.
Finally, like the bottom tier of Republicans, the bottom tier of democratic candidates did not fundraise very well in Q2. It will be exceptionally hard for them to move into the second tier without significant efforts on their part.
Conclusions
If Republicans nominate a well-funded candidate who does not energize the base and who does not resonate with the minorities in the district, and the Democrats nominate Carolyn, then Republicans might be setting themselves up for a loss in 2020. If Nabilah wins the democratic GA7 nomination, all bets are off and that scenario might not be good news for Republicans either.
